Two Years Later

What will the effects of EU expansion in the Balkans be, and what position should the Western Balkan countries assume under these new circumstances? – How far have Serbia and Montenegro come in the process of association with the Union? – What is the status of political, economic and legal/institutional reforms in Serbia and Montenegro?

DILEMMA: Does the political will exist to establish institutions for the future federal state of Serbia and Montenegro – one of the preconditions for negotiations with the EU?

Dr Duško Lopandić

More than 150 participants attended the conference entitled "Serbia and Montenegro on the Road to the EU: Two Years Later", and more than 30 papers and reports were read. The conference brought together representatives of the non-government sector, top representatives of the federal and national administrations, parliament, political parties, the media (5 TV stations and the print media), young people's groups, representatives of specialist institutions, the economy, and so on. The conference also included high-level foreign political representatives and experts, above all representatives of regional nations and EU countries, as well as members of international organizations.

The discussion concerned the following questions: How far have Serbia and Montenegro come in the process of association with the Union? What will the effects of EU expansion in the Balkans be, and what position should the Western Balkan countries assume under these new circumstances? What is the status of political, economic and legal/institutional reforms in Serbia and Montenegro?

NO DILEMMA: Meeting the conditions for association with the EU is another name for the process of transition and modernization in this country

A STEP FORWARD...: it was observed that the situation in the Balkans is considerably more favorable than it was two years ago, and that there has been significant progress in regional cooperation in many respects: agreements, regional initiatives, regulation of border relations, easier circulation of people, goods and capital, the low probability of renewed regional conflict, and the fact that all the governments in the region are preparing to enter the EU.

Moreover, a broad foundation now exists for the further development of regional relations, as well as some sort of regional platform – a joint approach to the EU. This should not preclude an individual approach by the countries of the region and their process of integration. On the other hand, it should grasp the basic mutual interests of countries which are not yet included in the current EU expansion process.

This platform should also include a demand that the momentum of EU expansion be maintained, embracing the countries of Southeast Europe as well. In this sense, it is necessary that the EU already begin extending its pre-accession strategy to include the Western Balkan nations, covering both administrative (Directorate General for Enlargement for the Western Balkan region) and financial measures (the ISPRA and SAPARD programs), and that the Balkan countries assume a coordinated approach to the EU on issues of mutual interest.

To start with, the Western Balkan countries should prepare a joint approach to the EU's Western Balkan summit, which will be held in Thessaloniki in June 2003, and which should represent "what Copenhagen 1993 meant for the countries of Central and Eastern Europe". This is already being discussed; however, it is evident that the reverse option may also prevail: that the process of expansion may be halted, the EU sealed off and the region further marginalized.

...A STEP BACKWARD: The largest part of the conference was, of course, devoted to trends internal to the FRY. Numerous discussions confirmed the close connection between internal reform and foreign policy goals. Progress in transition and reform within a country directly enables and eases progress in foreign relations, particularly in the process of EU integration: "Meeting the conditions for joining the EU is another name for the process of transition and modernization in this country".

It was observed, however, that regardless of the indisputable results achieved by reform over the past two years, there are still a number of worrisome factors and warning signs. During recent months, for instance, the process of strengthening the country's relations with international organizations has slowed. The basic problem in this regard is securing the currently non-existent internal political and institutional stability, as a precondition for democratization, establishing the rule of law and economic reform.

Regardless of the adoption of the Constitutional Charter, the pace of and political will for building the institutions of the future federal state of Serbia and Montenegro, one of the preconditions for negotiations with the EU, was cited as a particular dilemma.

The discussions showed that it is essential to implement the declarative support for integration in practice, above all by means of meeting political requirements, cooperating with the Hague Tribunal, administrative work, the judiciary, and so on.

It was seen that legal and institutional reforms are still at their very start, while on the economic plane, after a period of deep, decade-long stagnation, much has been done over the last two years to stabilize the situation and create conditions for long-term growth. It was observed that there are necessary economic preconditions for the FRY to join the EU, but that Serbia has still not secured adequate capital investment to ensure long-term growth – even in comparison with other countries in the region.

mr svilanovic, minister of foreign affairs, with his macedonian colegues, marks the borderline between the two countries

BALKANIZATION: The situation in the Balkans is considerably more favorable than it was two years ago, and there has been significant progress in regional cooperation

It was judged that 2003 will be a watershed year from the point of view of further economic reform, one which should indicate whether the achieved economic stability will be maintained, or whether the country will retreat from its current policies and fall into a transition crisis. The importance of a macroeconomic policy that allows a strengthening of the economy's competitive ability was highlighted, and a lively discussion occurred concerning the results and methods of privatization hitherto.

CONCLUSIONS: In drawing conclusions at the conference, it was suggested that non-government organizations continue their work in promoting European values and securing social consensus on EU integration. The state authorities should, for their part, take the necessary measures to ensure that a Stabilization and Association Agreement is signed in 2003, so that political and other preparatory steps for establishing candidacy for membership in the EU may be undertaken in the following years.

The effectiveness of the federal state of Serbia and Montenegro will be evaluated in practice, according to the degree to which these goals are implemented.

The EU and the FRY

Conditions and Problems

The Copenhagen Criteria of 1993, in harmony with the methodology published in "Agenda 2000", define the conditions which candidates for EU membership must fulfill. These include the following:

1. Political level: Stability of institutions which guarantee democracy, the rule of law, human rights, and respect for and protection of minorities;

2. Economic level: Existence of a functioning market economy and ability to face the pressure of competition and market relations within the Union;

3. Functional level of ability for integration: Readiness to accept the obligations arising from membership, including the aims of European political, economic and monetary union, as reflected in the adoption of "aquis communautaire" as a corpus of EU legislation, and the ability to effectively apply it in the national administrative and judicial system.

Open political questions inherited from the past include:

1. International law issues relating to the sovereignty of FR Yugoslavia, which ought to have been resolved by the recent adoption of the Constitutional Charter for the federal state of Serbia and Montenegro;

2. Issues relating to national borders; more precisely, Serbia's territorial sovereignty in the context of resolving the question of Kosovo, as well as the need for a new constitutional and legal definition of Serbia following restructuring of the FRY as the federal state of Serbia and Montenegro;

3. The current Yugoslav democratic paradox: although political will on the part of all the relevant actors in today's FRY, Serbia and Montenegro undoubtedly exists (at the government level), as well as significant majority support among citizens with regard to the country's entering the EU as well as the restructuring of relations within the federal state and its preservation in a reduced form – a slowing-down of the process of association with the EU could occur.

This is indicated by the provisions of the Charter according to which a common market is to be established via the process of harmonization only over the next three years, with the powers of the federal state's administrative bodies being reduced in terms of regulating and implementing rights that are of crucial importance for domestic legal entities operating on the common market (the free movement of goods, capital, people and services), but which are less than those which EU bodies (the Commission, the European Court of Justice) have in the same area on the already-established EU common market.

Thus Article IV, paragraph 4 of the draft Charter does not inspire much confidence that integration oriented towards the "common market" will come any time soon. Nor does it specify what exactly is understood by this term, thus leaving room for varying interpretations which, in the absence of corresponding powers for the Court of the federal state, could lead to a new round of political debate.

Europe has significantly helped Serbia and Montenegro to remain a unified state, but the question arises as to whether the European Commission will consent to sign a Stabilization and Association Agreement with the future federal state of Serbia and Montenegro, in the absence of a unified customs zone and a common currency on the territory of the country with which it is negotiating?!

Danijel Pantić
(The author is the secretary general
of the European Movement in Serbia)