Early warning system "Challenges to the implementation of reforms: one year after the victory of democracy"

Project Coordinator : Danijel Pantić, M. Sc.
Project Assistant : Dragana Aleksandrić, e.mail: dragana.aleksandric@emins.org

EMinS experts have conducted a research project entitled "Challenges to the implementation of reforms: one year after the victory of democracy" , the results of which have been presented in the "Early warning system" annual report of the United Nations Development Program", UNDP. The research was conducted in the July 2000-October 2001 period, encompassing the final three months of the previous regime (July-September 2000), the three-month period of cohabitation (October-December 2000) and the period of democratic consolidation of the new regime (January-October 2001). The publication was compiled on the basis of eight successive public opinion polls on the territory of Serbia conducted by the Centre for Political Studies and Public Opinion Research of the Institute for Social Sciences and the analyses of the EMinS expert team in the following areas:

POLITICAL PUBLIC OPINION - The initial unrealistically high expectations were gradually replaced by a renewed optimism and the emergence of a new realism; the potential destabilising factors of the democratic process are the citizens' frustration over the economic situation and the standard of living, as well as the slow process of switching to the market economy and a lack of concrete results in fighting crime.

ETHNIC RELATIONS - Analyses show that satisfactory ethnic relations at the local and regional level are accompanied by a more active, positive policy towards ethnic minorities on the part of the new authorities. A great number of citizens (including Hungarians and Bosniaks) express satisfaction about the state of ethnic relations in the country, with the exception of the situation in the south of Serbia, Kosovo and Montenegro; two thirds of the citizens polled think that cooperation with the international community is necessary for resolving problems in the south of Serbia.

MACROECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL STABILITY - The return of Yugoslavia to most international financial institutions and the renewed economic cooperation with most countries, the liberalization of prices and foreign trade, the regulation of the tax system and public finances are not a sufficient prerequisite for long-term investments necessary for economic development.

EMPLOYMENT, LABOUR MARKET AND THE GREY ECONOMY - The trend of increase of unemployment in the social sector has continued; a million citizens are involved in the grey economy, mostly those from urban households; after the new Law on Employment has been passed, it is expected that the labour market will be liberalised.

SOCIAL - ECONOMIC STABILITY - Despite a steady increase of salaries, pensions and welfare benefits, but prices as well (urban household expenditures have increased by one-third), 80% of the citizens are dissatisfied with their standard of living. The number of pollees expecting social unrest and strikes has reached the pre-October 2000 level.

CRIME AND CORRUPTION - Despite the new legal regulations (the tax system, the Law on Extra Profit, the preparation of new laws on public procurement and criminal law proceedings) and cooperation with the Hague Tribunal, most citizens are dissatisfied with what the Government has achieved in fighting crime and corruption: 46% of the citizens think that nothing has changed, 26% think that the situation is worse than during the Milošević era, and 18% are satisfied with what has been achieved.

The integral version of the report has been published at EMinS website: www.emins.org/publikacije