Dr Dusko Lopandic

Regional Initiatives in South Eastern Europe

• Table of Contents
• Foreword
• Conclusion

CONTENTS

FOREWORD (Dr Jelica Minic)

PART ONE

GENERAL VIEW OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF MULTILATERAL RELATIONS IN THE BALKANS

I INTRODUCTION

MULTILATERAL COOPERATION AS A MODERN FORM OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: FROM MILITARY ALLIANCES TO ECONOMIC INTEGRATION

II REGIONAL INITIATIVES IN THE BALKANS:

INCENTIVES AND OBSTACLES IN THE WAY OF COOPERATION AND INTEGRATION

III HISTORICAL OVERVIEW

INITIATIVES FOR MULTILATERAL COOPERATION IN THE BALKANS IN THE PERIOD FROM THE FIRST WORLD WAR TO THE END OF THE BIPOLAR ERA

PART TWO

REVIEW OF EXISTING INITATIVES FOR MULTILATERAL COOPERATION IN SOUTH EASTERN EUROPE

I CENTRAL EUROPEAN INITIATIVE – CEI

II BLACK SEA ECONOMIC COOPERATION
- from regional forum to international organization -

III CENTRAL EUROPEAN FREE TRADE ASSOCIATION – CEFTA

IV SOUTHEAST EUROPE COOPERATION PROCESS
(Conference on stability, security and cooperation of South Eastern Europe
- from one post-Yugoslav crisis to another -

V ROYAUMONT PROCESS
("Process of stability and good neighborliness in South Eastern Europe")
- from great ambitions to modest achievements -

VI SECI – SOUTHEAST EUROPEAN COOPERATION INITIATIVE
- orientation towards pragmatic and effective regional cooperation -

VII STABILITY PACT FOR SOUTH EASTERN EUROPE
- from words to deeds and back again -

VIII OTHER INITIATIVES AND ORGANIZATIONS IN SEE

PART III
TOWARDS EUROPE: EUROPEAN UNION AND THE BALKANS

I INTERESTS OF THE EUROPEAN UNION AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE BALKANS

II REVIEW OF BILATERAL RELATIONS BETWEEN EUROPEAN UNION AND INDIVIDUAL BALKAN COUNTRIES

III EU REGIONAL INITIATIVES IN THE BALKANS

GENERAL CONCLUSION
REGIONAL COOPERATION IN THE BALKANS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE XXI CENTURY

An endeavor to evaluate the role and results of regional initiatives in South Eastern Europe

SUPPLEMENTS

SOME IMPORTANT DOCUMENTS ON REGIONAL INITIATIVES

TABLES

BIBLIOGRAPHY

<page top>

Foreword

The break-up of SFRY and the ensuing chain of cruel and destructive wars in South Eastern Europe has attracted the attention of many experts, but it has also attracted the attention of people that follow publicist and research "fashion." Many witnesses of what happened in this region in the last decade of the twentieth century have published confessional and analytical works - journalists, diplomats, writers, soldiers, intellectuals, experts of international organizations, adventurists… The fewest in-depth analyses and projections have actually come from the region itself, and particularly from the crisis centre. Most of the mentioned publications had at their roots the idea of the "fatal" tendency towards fragmentation that the region undergoes on a periodic and frequent basis.

In his study "Regional Initiatives and Multilateral Cooperation in South Eastern Europe," D. Lopandic takes the opposite assumption as his point of departure - the authentic tendency and endeavours towards integration in the region - which are usually thwarted by events in a broader international context, and then, in turn, realized as the will of the "international community." The reader has before him a study that is one of the clearest and most systematic analyses of this material not only in Yugoslav but also in international literature. Lucid, with extreme clarity of organization and without unnecessary digressions, the author has woven and then followed an analytical web thanks to which he has reached significant conclusions. The author considers the impact of these initiatives to have been positive, but esteems that they were not in themselves sufficient to halt the fragmentation process in the region. It is evident that special mechanisms of cooperation have to be evolved that will contribute directly to security in the region. He notes that most of these initiatives have come from outside the region, that their objectives have been mainly modest and that the influence of administrative structures has been predominant. Nonetheless, all the countries of the region have endeavoured to become involved in the largest possible number of initiatives, considering them protective and promotional mechanisms. The conclusion therefore follows that coordination amongst the different initiatives is insufficient, and that they themselves are frequently not well adapted to the needs of the countries of the region. Moreover, the problem exists of, on the one hand, the complementary nature and, on the other hand, the competitiveness of the many initiatives. It can be concluded on the basis of a detailed analysis that good links with sources of financing are vital for their success. The sectors of cooperation with the greatest prospects for success can be identified (trade, transport, infrastructure, environment, trans-border cooperation, tourism, other services, the struggle against organized crime, security, culture and sport), which the domains of cooperation most frequently encompass. An extremely important finding is that the relative distance from full EU membership is inciting the region’s countries to closer cooperation and that, by including FRY in most of these initiatives, their latitude of activity has been extended and chances for success increased. At the very end of his work, which to a great extent bears an encouraging message, the author warns that the power of centrifugal forces in the region should not be neglected and that it cannot be claimed that they have lost their dominant place they had in the last decade.

One decade, such as the 1990’s, represents a short moment in the history of a nation; those ten years were insufficient to draw valid conclusions on forthcoming events, but they were sufficient to summarise a historical era and to give a hint as to how it will end. The reorganization of a political space, in this case South Eastern Europe, is a complex and often contradictory process in which the relations of the various factors and territorial units are constantly being redefined. Political spaces can be observed as open and prone to constant reconstitution through conflicts or the adjustment of the multiple identities of the political factors. The question remains as to how cultural, ethnic and religious differences will be treated in the future, and the same goes for the problems of multiple identity within the scope of a politically and economically every more heterogeneous Europe. The establishment of new relations between democratic processes and different instances of authority (local, regional, national, supranational) represents the central element in the creation of a democratic, socially just and peaceful Europe. The voluntary yielding of part of national sovereignty to growing European supranational institutions is evolving despite their essential democratic shortcomings. Europe can be seen as an emerging super-state, which is politically and militarily weak and with a serious lack of democratic mechanisms on a supranational level - as an economic giant without an effective foreign policy or the necessary military power. The question also arises as to where to draw the borders of the common space and what is happening outside it. The possible models of a future EU system are varied (a "strong centre" versus the periphery, "concentric circles," "flexible geometry," etc.), which have vital implications on the institutionalisation of the mutual relations of the main factors (nation states as constitutive units, but also inter-state territorial units and border regions). Events in the Balkans are an essential part of the political process that is to decide the outcome of Europe’s political system. The regional initiatives encompassed in this study must therefore be observed in the broader context of the creation of a "new European architecture," as part of the mechanism of European integration. South Eastern Europe has still not evolved its own new political identity. It is being built contrary to the stereotype idea of the Balkans as a "gunpowder keg." Economic underdevelopment, social tensions, the nature of societies in transition, alongside all the cultural, ethnic and confessional differences, are stressed as the main obstacles in the way of integrated regional structures.

However, it is as if the political pendulum were turning. Given all the turbulence and conflicts that may still persist at a low level, a huge political energy is changing direction from the disintegration towards the reintegration of the region. And that is what this book is talking about. A new identity, a new role for the Balkans can be glimpsed through the criss-crossing of the many threads described here. That identity, which is being formed under the auspices of an expanded EU, is pointing more and more to the prospect of a "package arrangement." In order for the states of the region to be accepted into the EU, it must also be a region in entirety. That means that cooperative and not competitive mechanisms must become predominant. All initiatives for cooperation in South Eastern Europe are actually encouraging the homogenisation of the region, which is to the direct interest of each of the individual states.

The region of South Eastern Europe is not a policy maker on a European or a world level, but rather a policy taker. The ethnic differences are latent and require a favourable constellation (internal and external) for their manifestation. It is therefore always easier to rectify the consequences of wars and disintegration in a broader, multilateral scope, in which the wartime opponents can become allies in the promotion of development. Western Europe has, after all, proven that.

Regional integration is today a universal process that encompasses not only the formation of security alliances and trade arrangements, but also numerous domains of economic and social life, political structure, internal security, the protection of natural resources, culture, etc. What is involved, therefore, is a complex and multidimensional process of linkage in a region, which does not only presuppose relations amongst states and national administrations but also many other social factors, such as representatives of the business world, politics, the civil society, etc. This is more than evident in the analyses and tables presented in this study of the spheres, mechanisms and factors of this cooperation. What represents a new quality in this study is the actual authentic initiative which comes "from the bottom upwards" and can be seen in the increasing significance of local communities, trans-border cooperation and the role of many individual "micro-factors."

Although it indisputable that all the partners in this process are not equal in economic and political power and importance, the structures being established give them the same formal status, which protects their basic interests. Although most regional initiatives in South Eastern Europe represent replicas of European historical tradition, the differences are not to be lightly dismissed. There predominates the sense of a laboratory, experiment, methodological variation - the Balkans as a test for a broader European option - mainly as an object, but more and more also as the subject for broader European politics.

It can be concluded that the long-term, effective model for the integration of European countries - the European Union - is the main anchor for all the countries of the region and, at the same time, the main direction towards which they should steer. The regional initiatives within which multilateral cooperation in the region has been developed are successfully preparing South Eastern European countries for their greatest challenge - integration into the EU. The countries standing today at the door of this monumental institution show those standing further away how to become organized and to prepare for the forthcoming sequences of rapprochement and integration. This represents an increasingly important segment of political dynamics in the region.

Finally, one must stress the important role of this challenging work, which poses, explicitly or implicitly, a whole series of essential questions concerning the region’s political future and its European context. The publication of this study also demonstrates the great need for such literature. The study now in the readers’ hands is the first exceptionally comprehensive, systematic and clear analysis of multilateral cooperation in South Eastern Europe to come out of this country. It is particular valuable in that it provides translations of significant documents on regional initiatives, which give the reader a more complete insight into the material researched. Many students and professors have thus obtained valuable material for opening up new fields of study, and many experts and administration and media representatives now have a handbook that they will have to consult more and more frequently bearing in mind FR Yugoslavia’s ever more intensive international and regional cooperation.

Dr Jelica Minic

<page top>

GENERAL CONCLUSION:
REGIONAL COOPERATION IN THE BALKANS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE XXI CENTURY

- An endeavour to evaluate the role and results to date of regional initiatives in South Eastern Europe -

"A peninsula is a world in itself. Like people on board a ship, states and peoples on a peninsula must have a general political problem and political idea, however diverse they may otherwise be… Will the Balkans once and for all open its sleepy eyes and see its huge cultural capacity, if it gets underway as an entity…"

(Isidora Sekulic, The Balkans, 1940)

An evaluation of the role and results of the activities of regional initiatives in SEE gives rise to several basic questions:

• do regional initiatives contribute to the achievement of the goals proclaimed in their inaugural documents, and to what extent?
• do regional initiatives contribute to the promotion of economic trends and all forms of exchange in the region, as well as to overall stability (political, economic, military), to reforms, to the modernization of the economy and society as well as to improving the lives of the inhabitants of SEE countries? And, if they do, to what extent?
• Have regional initiatives in SEE contributed to the consolidation of cooperation and integration process in the region, including the geo-political and economic shaping of the region as a specific entity in European architecture? And, if they do, to what extent?
• Have regional initiatives in SEE contributed to the main strategic goal of all SEE countries: integration in the European Union? And, if they have, to what extent?

It can be stressed that the existence and overall activity of various initiatives in South Eastern Europe is doubtless positive. They have an impact on new forms of conduct, on overcoming narrow-minded nationalism and the idea of the "self-sufficiency" of states. They encourage cooperation amongst administrations and economic and other circles of the countries in; they decrease various forms of obstacles; they facilitate communications in the region and create "networks" of contact. By their very existence and activity, they affect public opinion and have an influence on the awareness of the common goals of all the region’s countries. They facilitate the process of the preparation of trans-border projects and the engagement of international finance resources.

Despite a positive assessment with respect to the "micro-effects" of regional initiatives, it should also be noted that these initiatives and forms of multilateral cooperation have not to date really crucially helped Balkan countries to ensure integration into the EU or to change the political, economic or social environment in the region in a more essential manner, that is to say they have not halted the process of "Balkanisation," which seems to have received a new impetus with the Kosovo crisis and then the problems in Macedonia. Sub-regional initiatives have on the whole yielded only "limited concrete results"352, which is explained by various factors, from insufficient political support to the lack of financial resources, as well as other problems (insufficient administrative experience of the member states, insufficient political and economic conditions of activity, lack of clear goals and work plans, etc.). The picture of the volume and structure of trade and economic trends in the Balkans only confirms the observation concerning the main orientation of the Balkan countries towards the EU and developed countries of the West.353 Cooperation amongst neighbours is rather limited, which is a typical characteristic of economically peripheral regions. In that sense, there can still be no talk of any essential change in the state of affairs of economic and social sub-regional links to which regional initiatives would contribute as compared with the period hitherto.

An analysis of the structure and form of the formation of regional initiatives that are active in the Balkans shows that, with the exception of the SEECP, none of the other six regional initiatives represents an autochthonous "product" of the Balkan countries themselves. Other initiatives have either been formed outside the Balkan region, and have "expanded" to SEE countries too, or their emergence is the consequences of "incentives" of developed countries.354 This fact, besides bearing witness to the reliance of Balkan countries on neighbouring sub-regions (Central Europe, Black Sea region and the Mediterranean), only confirms the long since noted observation that even up to the present day, the Balkans has not become an organized regional entity.355 Not doubting the general good intentions of initiatives that come from "foreign factors," the fact cannot be ignored that each country or organization that has launched an initiative also has its own specific national, economic and other objectives, which cannot but have an impact on the specific "profile" the initiative assumes.

One of the essential characteristics of regional initiatives in SEE is the modesty of their objectives, which is in evident contrast to the volume and gravity of the problems facing SEE countries (economic underdevelopment, conflicts within and between countries, social instability, etc.). As compared with Western European examples, none of the initiatives (except, in part, the Stability Pact) dares to proclaim a large-scale or attractive integration project, around which the entire initiative would assume structure. Until now, ideas of a customs union, a free trade zone in the Balkans, the foundation of a "Balkan Agency for the Development of Infrastructures", etc. have remained merely academic proposals or declarations of intent.356 This lack of autonomous integration initiatives has, amongst other things, led to the reorientation of Balkan countries to similar, successful projects outside of SEE. Thus, for example, CEFTA has gradually also become a Balkan integration project, but for the present highly incomplete with respect to membership from SEE.

The majority, if not all, regional initiatives in South Eastern Europe were from the very beginning conceived as a complementary form to the integration process, the main trends of which are taking place within the European Union. They represent a supplement to European architecture and not a substitute for the inclusion of SEE countries into the EU and other pan-European organizations.357 Therefore, the eventual lagging behind of the SEE region in the process of integration in the EU also has a boomerang effect on the role and results of regional initiatives and their impact of the state of affairs in the region.

Participation in multilateral cooperation represents an additional element of value in the case of the influence and international position of individual Balkan countries (especially the smaller and newly-created countries), with the result that the majority of countries endeavour to participate and be active in as many initiatives as possible. According to the tables given in the supplement, Romania and Bulgaria take part in all seven analysed regional initiatives in SEE, Albania follows with participation in six regional initiatives, followed by Macedonia, Greece, Turkey and Slovenia each with five, followed by Bosnia and Herzegovina. Croatia is next to the last (on account of its reserves concerning everything even "resembling" the Balkans). Until recently, internationally isolated FRY had been the country with the lowest level of participation (in only two regional initiatives), which has been considerably changed since the end of 2000 (participation in five regional initiatives).

An analysis of the characters and contents of the working groups and projects initiated in the individual regional initiatives points to the dominant influence of administrative structures (i.e. states and international bureaucracies) regarding the content and profile of cooperation in SEE. In other words, the initiatives had a "top-down" and not a "bottom-up" nature. Despite certain efforts, there is no confirmation that regional initiatives have generated to a sufficient extent such cooperation as would be necessary for the free development of the economy and overall exchange and movement of people, services and capital. "The majority of regional initiatives, with the exception of SECI, have been oriented towards the holding of meetings."358 The adequate development of authentic multilateral cooperation projects has not yet occurred outside the framework of political-bureaucratic incentives, e.g. in the economy, the non-governmental sector, etc., although efforts are doubtless being exerted to that end within the Stability Pact.

The number of initiatives, their membership and the way in which they emerged indicate the vital issue of their mutual (lack of) complementarity, and (non)competitiveness. Each of the active initiatives has had its autonomous development course, although activities have frequently overlapped, which the regional initiatives have to a certain extent endeavoured to overcome themselves. Essentially speaking, the problem does not lie in the number of regional initiatives, but in the best way to coordinate them and divide work.359 There has already been the gradual and spontaneous development of a specific network of contacts and mutual cooperation amongst the initiatives themselves (mutual participation at meetings in the capacity of observers, information exchange, expert contacts, joint high-level meetings in individual domains, such as transport (CEI, BSEC), the fight against smuggling (CEI, BSEC), etc. Ultimately, the question might arise of the "merging" of several initiatives, in which a considerable number of member countries are the same.

In the case of the achievements of certain regional initiatives, CEI experience, as well as that of BSEC and SECI, shows that of vital importance for the effectiveness of initiatives are good links and coordination amongst those forums and the corresponding sources of financing on the international, regional or national level. In that sense, good results have been achieved by certain CEI projects, realized in close cooperation with the EBRD. On the other hand, the results of the Royaumont Process were disappointing, which is mainly the consequence of the non-existence of sufficient political incentive on the part of the EU and insufficient definition of the initiative’s content and sources of financing. A particular problem lies in the articulation and the inclusion of the SEECP, which to a certain extent overlaps other, earlier or for the present more effective regional initiatives. SEECP, however, does have its own authentic achievements and advantages.

The issue of the regulation of security in the narrower and broader senses ("soft security issues") has been seen more and more as one of the key problems in the Balkans, which cannot be resolved only with economic or social measures, as it also requires specific methods and solutions on a regional level. After the crisis in Kosovo, this has led to the launching of a number of "frameworks of cooperation" on the level of ministers of defence or internal affairs of SEE countries, as well as to the activity of the Stability Pact Working Table III.

An analysis of what has happened to date leads to the conclusion that it would, amongst other things, be useful to examine the following issues and suggestions in the framework of the Stability Pact for South Eastern Europe (one of the tasks of which in principle should be channelling and coordinating regional initiative activity):

• adjustment of the work of the individual initiatives active in SEE through the redefinition of the programme objectives and the coordination of their activity in working groups and projects. What is involved first and foremost is the coordination of subjects and methodologies of work amongst the Stability Pact, SECI and SEECP;
• institutionalisation of contacts and cooperation amongst regional initiatives through regular information channels, meetings and the gradual establishment of joint working bodies in spheres of common interest. To that end, it would be useful to set up specific and original forms of institutionalised links, such as, for example, established institutionalised links like those between the EU and EFTA countries in the framework of the European economic space (systematic information, parallel examination of decisions and programmes, joint programme financing, "passerelles," observer status in working bodies, etc.);
• programmes of support to national administrations of SEE countries with the aim of making them able to participate actively in regional initiatives, particularly as "host countries," or coordinators (for individual working groups, etc.);
• measures with the aim of greater efficiency and the more rapid implementation of programmes and concrete projects, as well as coordination and the securing sources of financial support for projects in the scope of regional initiatives;
• adaptation of the objectives and work of individual initiatives to the state of affairs and needs of SEE countries (e.g. in the case of CEFTA, BSEC, etc.);
• closer coordination amongst regional initiatives and the EU Stabilization and Association Process, as well as the process of the expansion of the EU, as the main strategic commitments of all countries of the region.

The domains and sectors that could become of vital importance in further inter-Balkan cooperation and integration could be the following: free trade, infrastructure development, environment protection, trans-border and sub-regional cooperation ("Euroregions"), tourism, development of services, particularly financial services, cooperation in issues of internal affairs and security, transport, culture and sport.360

On the long-term, with the loss of the illusion that membership of the EU can be achieved quickly, the question will be posed more and more of the more coherent and stronger institutional cooperation amongst countries of South Eastern Europe, by means of the Stability Pact or other institutions that would have an authentic international capacity, clearly specified jurisdiction, a better elaborated internal structure and its own budget. In this way, SEE countries could overcome the gap that exists between the needs for the trans-national regulation of certain issues (ranging from the environment to crossing borders) and the still uncertain time of the expansion of the EU into this region.

On the other hand, in order to achieve successful stabilization and development in the region, the EU also has to develop and elaborate a long-term and stable strategy of relations with SEE, including the strategy of the inclusion of all countries of the region into its membership (on a longer-term).361

A particularly significant problem in the assessment of the (un)successfulness of all regional initiatives lies in the non-participation of FR Yugoslavia in the majority of those initiatives. Projects of Balkan cooperation with the exclusion of FRY have proved quite unrealistic and doomed to failure from the start.362 After the inclusion of FRY in projects and initiatives referring to reconstruction, cooperation and development in the region of South Eastern Europe, new prospects are opening up with the aim of true reconstruction and integral development in the Balkans. Even at the end of 2001, however, there remains the question of the extent to which centrifugal tendencies will continue to play a dominant role in inter-Balkan relations.

<page top>